This research distinguishes “greenwashing” from “greenwinning,” arguing that transparent, audited ESG data reduces uncertainty and lowers financing costs. It shows how inconsistent ESG ratings create a “trust tax,” increasing risk. By making sustainability measurable, markets can allocate capital more efficiently toward genuinely responsible and high-performing companies.

This research investigates political prediction markets, where people trade on future events like elections. By studying traders, journalists, and political staffers, it examines who drives these markets, how information is used, and whether their forecasts deserve public trust as indicators of democratic outcomes.