This research introduces the “signaling gap,” showing how states use controlled media to communicate positions they cannot express formally. Analyzing 174,000 articles, it finds that Russia-aligned countries signalled disapproval of the Ukraine invasion through negative coverage. The study bridges political science and intelligence practice, highlighting informal communication under constraint.

This research investigates political prediction markets, where people trade on future events like elections. By studying traders, journalists, and political staffers, it examines who drives these markets, how information is used, and whether their forecasts deserve public trust as indicators of democratic outcomes.