This research introduces the “signaling gap,” showing how states use controlled media to communicate positions they cannot express formally. Analyzing 174,000 articles, it finds that Russia-aligned countries signalled disapproval of the Ukraine invasion through negative coverage. The study bridges political science and intelligence practice, highlighting informal communication under constraint.

This research investigates how propaganda transforms beliefs, turning neighbors into perceived enemies. By analyzing decades of media data from democratically declining societies and testing persuasive mechanisms experimentally, the project identifies which narratives most effectively fuel polarization, ethnic hatred, and democratic erosion—knowledge essential for resisting modern propaganda.